global warming frustration

Here's the post Lynne asked me about. I put it up, then took it down for various reasons. I'll put it back up.

OK, I have to make a comment or two about global warming, seeing as how this is pretty much what I spend 21% of my awake hours doing (that's a rough estimate). I've been doing some web surfing lately and have happened to run across, oh, 10 or so blogs in the last 2 days that just absolutely ridicule the whole idea of global warming.

My first point is that it is laughable to me to imagine that scientists are part of some big conspiracy to dupe the public into believing something that's made up. Aside from sounding a lot like the "we never went to the Moon" argument, I challenge you to show me a valid reason that a scientist would perpetuate a global warming "myth".

I guarantee you that I could make a lot more money than I do now if I were to decide to work for an oil company and were to begin to push "evidence" that global warming were a myth. Publicly funded environmental science (which is how this type of research should be funded in order to assure scientific integrity and honesty) is not exactly a cash cow. It is a challenge to find ways to support continued research on climate change. I wonder if I'm stupid for staying in this line of research sometimes. It's entirely possible that I will be forced to change to something different within the next several years because research funding for climate change/global warming research is shriveling up to next to nothing. What possible motivation could I have as a scientist to claim that global warming is a concern, other than the fact that I just happen to have this need to search out the truth? In my experience, scientists really are pretty apolitical lot when it comes to our work. I certainly have my personal political views, but I went into science because I wanted to know how things worked, not so I could manipulate people. I have no problem admiting when I'm wrong (it happens a lot). I work side by side with ultra-right wing conservatives, hippy-dippy liberals, and every color in between. 99.99% of us that work in this field agree that global warming is occurring now, as a result of human activity. That's the scientific take on it. The problem is that the message that is getting out to the public is shuttled through journalists and the media and when it comes out with all this hype and scare tactics and finger-pointing, the natural response is one of skepticism.

Here's a plot I want to show.



Here, our current date is on the left and the scale shows thousands of years as you move to the right, out to about 400,000 years ago. Data is from ice cores. The inset shows a blow-up of the last 1000 years or so. The reason the last hundred years looks out of whack with the last 400,000 years is that for the first time in the history of the earth, there's been a way to move very large stores of carbon from the ground to the air in a very short time (volcanoes do some too, but the amount of CO2 from volcanoes is about 1% of that from burning coal and oil). It goes from 275 ppm (parts per million, which means the number of molecules of CO2 per million molecules of "air") to 375 ppm within a time period that is almost instantaneous when it's compared to history. Normally, the carbon balance is controlled by migration of carbon from ground to air to ocean from natural processes that take thousands to tens of thousands of years to occur. When humans learned that burning coal and oil from the ground produced useful energy, we began a very very fast migration of carbon from the ground into the air, and the absorption of carbon from the air into the ocean can't keep up. Here's a higher resolution plot (meaning we can see variations during the year in this one).



This shows measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 1955, and this time the current date (or close to it) is at the right. You can see a clear yearly cycle - the "wiggles" show changes in CO2 during the summer (when active vegetative growth takes up CO2) and winter (when it doesn't, and when decay of dying vegetation returns CO2 to the atmosphere). It's also clear that the magnitude of these processes is much less than the general increase since the 1950s. There aren't very many people left who can argue with the fact that this is a result of the burning of fossil fuels.

Does CO2 make the atmosphere warmer?
Yes.
This has been known for a very long time. We have a significant amount of CO2 in our atmosphere already from things like volcanoes and decaying vegetation (remember I mentioned the natural evolution of carbon from ground to air to ocean?) If we didn't have any CO2 in the atmosphere, our world would be too cold for us to exist. It is only because of CO2 that our climate is what it is.

Lab experiments have long shown that CO2 increases temperature in the atmosphere. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere will increase the temperature, all things remaining constant. It's the "all things remaining constant" phrase that has scientists working long hours on this. All things do not remain constant. We don't know what the atmospheric feedback is from clouds and aerosols. But I can tell you with confidence that the level zero analysis from science is that the climate is changing due to the increased amount of CO2 humans are putting into the atmosphere. The sea ice over the Arctic is decreasing something like 7-8% per decade for the last several decades. Permafrost is melting up in the Arctic.

The biggest challenge for scientists is being able to relay what we learn to the public. It is rare to find a scientist that is also an engaging public figure. Since none of us want to do it, journalists and politicians have taken over and don't always do things like I'd like to see it done. Seems we'd be a lot better off if the hysteria were removed from this argument and we spent time brainstorming workable solutions that would not destroy the economy. There are some solutions out there (nuclear power! Did I just say that? (g)). We also need to come to terms with the fact that the climate is changing and learn what steps we need to take to minimize negative impacts from that. We can address these issues. Instead, we're running around like the sky is falling and shouting at each other about conspiracies and myths.

Take a look at the Real climate folks I have linked to in my side bar. They really are awesome. They're quite up front with their discussions, and include plenty of science for those who are curious enough to want to dig into it. They've sounded frustrated to me lately, too. Seems like several old arguments against global warming are being recycled again and given media/air time. Sigh. Rewind. Replay. Anyway, use their search tool to look for discussions on things you've heard about and are curious what the science take on it is. The problem is that it takes time to research and think about things on our own. It's a lot easier to take at face value what's handed to you by skeptics or proponents either one. But we're smarter than that.